President-elect Donald Trump has said he will create new jobs and make America great again. Trump implied workers in the coal mines and rust belt areas of the United States will be working again and immigrants will be deported.
And he may well be right. Only those unemployed coal mine workers and former workers in the rust belt area of the US likely won’t be employed in their prior trade.
Many of Mr. Trump’s supporters have a grade 12 or less education. In the 2016 election, a wide gap in presidential preferences emerged between those with and without a college degree. College graduates backed Clinton by a 9-point margin (52%-43%), while those without a college degree backed Trump 52%-44%. This is by far the widest gap in support among college graduates and non-college graduates in exit polls dating back to 1980. ( PEW Research article )
Trump supporters with a less than college education will have an opportunity to be retrained in order to fill the high number of new vacancies created by the policies created by Mr. Trump.
Where will Mr. Trump create all these new jobs?
Mr. Trump has vowed to deport 2-3 million illegal immigrants with a criminal degree of some kind. That still leaves about 11 million immigrants in the US.
Deporting or putting in jail 14 million illegal immigrants leaves a pretty big hole in the employment picture. Why? Here is a state-by-state map of immigrants and their main employment. Many of these immigrant jobs might be held by visa, many may not.
While the map shows that many immigrants are housekeepers, janitors and agricultural workers, the majority of jobs thought to be overwhelmingly worked by non-natives are in fact filled by native-born Americans, according to the Center for Immigration Studies:
- Maids and housekeepers: 51% native-born
- Taxi drivers and chauffeurs: 58% native-born
- Butchers and meat processors: 63% native-born
- Grounds maintenance workers: 64% native-born
- Construction laborers: 66% native-born
- Porters, bellhops, and concierges: 72% native-born
- Janitors: 73% native-born
Jobs worked by immigrants tend to pay low wages and usually require little formal education, like those agricultural jobs in California and other dark blue states in the map above.
In high-immigrant occupations, 59 percent of the workers have a high school education or lower, compared to 31 percent of the rest of the labor force. ( Read complete article on immigrants here. )
So as the state-by-state map shows, there are many opportunies for new jobs thanks to Mr. Trump’s promise of creating new jobs. Yes, Mr. Trump promised new jobs. He just didn’t promise good paying new jobs.